US dollar weakens, crude oil drops over 2%, metals show mixed performance, gold price pulls back, European container shipping rates plunge nearly 6% [SMM Midday Review]

SMM June 24 news:

Metal market:

By midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose, with only SHFE aluminum and SHFE nickel falling, down 0.69% and 0.81% respectively. SHFE zinc led the gains with a 0.78% increase, while other metals showed relatively small fluctuations. Alumina's most-traded contract rose 0.1%, while cast aluminum's most-traded contract fell 0.43%. Lithium carbonate rose 0.75%, polysilicon gained 0.91%, and silicon metal increased 0.27%.

Ferrous metals series all fell, with stainless steel leading the decline at 0.96%, iron ore down 0.14%, and rebar dropping 0.4%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.44% while coke declined 1.3%.

In overseas base metals, as of 11:35, prices showed mixed performance. LME copper, LME lead and LME nickel rose together, with LME copper leading at 0.19%, while LME aluminum led losses with a 0.91% drop and LME zinc fell 0.35%. Other metals showed relatively small fluctuations.

For precious metals, as of 11:35, COMEX gold fell 0.86% and COMEX silver dropped 0.25%. Domestically, SHFE gold declined 0.42% while SHFE silver rose 0.42%.

By midday close, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures contract fell 5.9% to 1,792.8.

As of 11:35 June 24, some futures midday quotes:

》June 24 SMM metal spot prices

Spot and fundamentals

Zinc:Today, mainstream transaction prices for 0# zinc concentrated at 22,170-22,275 yuan/mt, with Shuangyan traded at 22,320-22,435 yuan/mt, and 1# zinc at 22,100-22,265 yuan/mt. In early trading, market quotations showed premiums of 10-30 yuan/mt against the average price, with no quotations against contracts. During the second session, domestic regular zinc was quoted at premiums of 130-140 yuan/mt against the 2507 contract, Honglu-v at 130 yuan/mt against the 2507 contract, SMC at 100 yuan/mt against the 2507 contract, while premium brand Shuangyan quoted at 280-300 yuan/mt against the 2507 contract...》Click for details

Macro front

Domestic:

[PBOC: To study and formulate a new-phase fintech development plan, issuing policy documents to deepen fintech application for financial digital and intelligent transformation]The National Data Bureau jointly issued the "Data Element ×" Three-Year Action Plan (2024-2026) with 16 departments, aiming to strengthen scenario demand traction and promote compliant and efficient data circulation. The PBOC will next study and formulate a new-phase fintech development plan, issue policy documents to deepen fintech application for financial digital and intelligent transformation, and collaborate with the National Data Bureau to conduct "Data Element ×" pilot projects.

►On June 24, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1656 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar updates:

As of 11:35, the US dollar index fell by 0.27% to 98.12. Michelle Bowman, the Vice Chair for Supervision of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (Fed/FED), stated on Monday that the timing for an interest rate cut seemed to be approaching, as she was increasingly concerned about risks in the labour market and less worried that high import tariffs would lead to persistent inflation. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that the impact of tariffs on the economy so far had been milder than expected. Investors are focusing on the testimony of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before the House Financial Services Committee later on Tuesday.

Data updates:

Today, the US Q1 current account balance, the US June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, the Bank of Canada's core CPI monthly rate for May, the Bank of Canada's core CPI - Common annual rate for May, the Bank of Canada's core CPI annual rate - unadjusted for May, Australia's ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for the week ending June 22, Germany's June IFO Business Climate Index, the UK's June CBI Industrial Trends Survey Orders Balance, and other data will be released.

In addition, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler and FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President John Williams will host the "Fed Listens" event. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver his semi-annual monetary policy report testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will attend a meeting of the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee. NATO heads of state and government will hold a summit in The Hague from June 24 to 25, with Donald Trump confirming his attendance.

Crude oil updates:

As of 11:35, oil prices in both markets fell by more than 2%, with US crude oil down 2.73% and Brent crude oil down 2.41%, hitting their lowest levels in more than a week amid signs of easing conflicts in the Middle East, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions in the region.

Iran, the third-largest crude oil producer in OPEC, will be allowed to export more oil and prevent supply disruptions as tensions ease, which has also been a major factor in the recent surge in oil prices. Concerns about a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have also eased. Compared to early May, the number of empty oil tankers entering the Strait of Hormuz decreased by 32% over the past week, and the number of loaded tankers leaving the area decreased by 27%. Some crude oil traders and analysts said they had received warnings that multiple vessels were waiting to pass through the waters outside the Strait of Hormuz, potentially causing shipping delays. (Comprehensive report from Wenhua)

Spot market overview:

►Inventory ended a five-week decline with a significant increase, putting downward pressure on spot premiums [SMM South China spot copper]

►Weak supply and demand in the market led to sluggish spot trading activity [SMM North China spot copper]

►Shanghai zinc: Limited market supply, traders continue to refuse to budge on prices [SMM midday review]

►Ningbo zinc: Arrival of Qilin zinc ingots leads to continued decline in spot premiums [SMM midday review]